嗜酸性粒细胞性胃肠炎复发风险预测模型的构建: 基于69例患者的临床特征与长期随访

Construction of a prediction model for recurrence risk in eosinophilic gastroenteritis: based on clinical characteristics and long-term follow-up of 69 patients

  • 摘要:
    目的 构建嗜酸性粒细胞性胃肠炎(EGE)复发风险预测模型并分析EGE患者的临床特征。
    方法 选取69例EGE患者为研究对象, 并按复发状态分为复发患者与非复发患者。收集EGE患者临床资料。采用Logistic回归分析筛选复发的影响因素。根据筛选出的影响因素构建预测模型并验证。
    结果 EGE患者最常见的症状及体征是腹痛、腹部压痛。复发患者初诊年龄低于未复发患者,恶心/呕吐发生率及糖皮质激素使用率均高于未复发患者,差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。初诊年龄为患者复发的影响因素(OR=0.923, 95%CI: 0.877~0.971)。初诊年龄预测复发的曲线下面积为0.809(95%CI: 0.690~0.928), 最佳截断值为35.50岁,灵敏度为66.70%, 特异度为88.20%。
    结论 年轻EGPA患者复发风险高, 初诊年龄可作为预测指标,糖皮质激素治疗可能影响复发风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To construct a prediction model for the recurrence risk of eosinophilic gastroenteritis (EGE) and analyze the clinical characteristics of EGE patients.
    Methods Sixty-nine patients with EGE were selected as the research subjects and divided into recurrent patients and non-recurrent patients according to the recurrence status. Clinical data of EGE patients were collected. Logistic regression analysis was employed to screen factors influencing recurrence. A prediction model was then constructed and validated based on the identified influencing factors.
    Results The most common symptoms and signs in EGE patients were abdominal pain and abdominal tenderness. The initial diagnosis age of relapsed patients was significantly lower than that of non-relapsed patients, and the incidence of nausea/vomiting and the utilization rate of glucocorticoids were significantly higher than those of non-relapsed patients (P < 0.05). The age at initial diagnosis was an influencing factor for recurrence in patients (OR=0.923, 95%CI, 0.877 to 0.971). The area under the curve for predicting recurrence by the age at initial diagnosis was 0.809 (95%CI, 0.690 to 0.928), the optimal cut-off value was 35.50 years old, the sensitivity was 66.70%, and the specificity was 88.20%.
    Conclusion Young patients with EGPA have a high risk of recurrence. The age at initial diagnosis can be used as a predictive indicator, and glucocorticoid treatment may affect the risk of recurrence.

     

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