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1990—2021年中国居民高体质量指数所致肾癌疾病负担及趋势预测

Disease burden and trend forecast of renal cancer attributable to high body mass index among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 分析1990—2021年中国居民归因于高体质量指数(BMI)的肾癌疾病负担变化，并预测其至2050年的趋势。
    方法 基于2021年全球疾病负担研究(GBD 2021)数据，本研究对1990—2021年中国居民归因于高BMI的肾癌死亡率及伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)按年龄和性别进行分层分析。采用JoinPoint回归模型计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)及其95%置信区间，评估同期中国、全球及不同社会人口指数(SDI)地区高BMI所致肾癌疾病负担的变化趋势。利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型，预测2022—2050年中国相关年龄标化死亡率与年龄标化DALY率的变化趋势。
    结果 中国居民高BMI所致肾癌的年龄标化死亡率从1990年的0.07/10万增至2021年的0.17/10万，年龄标化DALY率从1.76/10万升至4.62/10万。年龄与性别分层分析显示, 15~ < 50岁人群的年龄标化DALY率增幅显著高于其他年龄段人群，男性增幅大于女性(P < 0.05)。与全球及中高SDI地区相比，中国人群相关年龄标化死亡率和DALY率增长更为显著(P < 0.05)。预测结果显示, 2022—2050年中国居民高BMI所致肾癌的年龄标化死亡率将每年上升3.89%, 年龄标化DALY率将每年上升3.29%。
    结论 采取适宜的体质量管理措施，有助于降低高BMI所致肾癌的疾病负担。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the changes in the disease burden of renal cancer attributable to high body mass index (BMI) among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021 and to predict its trend up to 2050.
    Methods Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), this study conducted stratified analysis of the mortality rate and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of renal cancer attributable to high BMI among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021 by age and gender. The JoinPoint regression model was employed to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval, assessing the changing trends in the disease burden of renal cancer attributable to high BMI in China, globally and across regions with different sociodemographic indices (SDIs) during the same period. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was utilized to predict the changing trends in age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates related to renal cancer attributable to high BMI in China from 2022 to 2050.
    Results The age-standardized mortality rate of renal cancer attributable to high BMI among Chinese residents increased from 0.07 per 100 000 in 1990 to 0.17 per 100 000 in 2021, while the age-standardized DALY rate rose from 1.76 per 100 000 to 4.62 per 100 000. Stratified analysis by age and sex revealed that the increase in age-standardized DALY rates was significantly higher in the population aged 15 to < 50 years compared to other age groups, with a greater increase observed in males than in females (P < 0.05). Compared to global and high-middle SDI regions, the increases in age-standardized mortality and DALY rates related to renal cancer attributable to high BMI were more pronounced in the Chinese population (P < 0.05). The forecast results indicated that from 2022 to 2050, the age-standardized mortality rate of renal cancer attributable to high BMI among Chinese residents will increase by 3.89% annually, while the age-standardized DALY rate will increase by 3.29% annually.
    Conclusion Implementing appropriate body weight management measures can help reduce the disease burden of renal cancer attributable to high BMI.

     

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