Objective To analyze the changes in the disease burden of renal cancer attributable to high body mass index (BMI) among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021 and to predict its trend up to 2050.
Methods Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), this study conducted stratified analysis of the mortality rate and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of renal cancer attributable to high BMI among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021 by age and gender. The JoinPoint regression model was employed to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval, assessing the changing trends in the disease burden of renal cancer attributable to high BMI in China, globally and across regions with different sociodemographic indices (SDIs) during the same period. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was utilized to predict the changing trends in age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates related to renal cancer attributable to high BMI in China from 2022 to 2050.
Results The age-standardized mortality rate of renal cancer attributable to high BMI among Chinese residents increased from 0.07 per 100 000 in 1990 to 0.17 per 100 000 in 2021, while the age-standardized DALY rate rose from 1.76 per 100 000 to 4.62 per 100 000. Stratified analysis by age and sex revealed that the increase in age-standardized DALY rates was significantly higher in the population aged 15 to < 50 years compared to other age groups, with a greater increase observed in males than in females (P < 0.05). Compared to global and high-middle SDI regions, the increases in age-standardized mortality and DALY rates related to renal cancer attributable to high BMI were more pronounced in the Chinese population (P < 0.05). The forecast results indicated that from 2022 to 2050, the age-standardized mortality rate of renal cancer attributable to high BMI among Chinese residents will increase by 3.89% annually, while the age-standardized DALY rate will increase by 3.29% annually.
Conclusion Implementing appropriate body weight management measures can help reduce the disease burden of renal cancer attributable to high BMI.
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