瘢痕子宫再次剖宫产分娩发生产后出血的列线图模型构建

Establishment of nomogram model for postpartum hemorrhage in delivery puerperas with uterine scar undergoing re-cesarean section

  • 摘要:
    目的  分析妊娠合并瘢痕子宫再次经剖宫产分娩产后出血(PPH)的危险因素, 建立妊娠合并瘢痕子宫患者再次经剖宫产分娩发生PPH风险的列线图预测模型。
    方法  选取210例妊娠合并瘢痕子宫患者为研究对象,根据是否发生产后出血分为PPH组(70例)和非PPH组(140例)。回顾性分析患者临床资料,筛选独立危险因素,构建预测模型,以列线图呈现。应用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线的曲线下面积(AUC)和校准曲线、决策曲线对模型进行评估。
    结果  既往人流次数(1次、≥2次)(OR=2.838, 95%CI: 1.014~8.051, P=0.047; OR=6.843, 95%CI: 2.523~18.560, P < 0.001)、硫酸镁保胎史(OR=14.061, 95%CI: 1.173~14.061, P=0.027)、产前出血(OR=6.977, 95%CI: 1.220~39.902, P=0.029)、未足月分娩(OR=7.737, 95%CI: 2.862~20.915, P=0.017)、胎盘位置(OR=3.370, 95%CI: 1.371~8.283, P=0.008)、前置胎盘(非完全、完全)(OR=9.210, 95%CI: 1.817~46.678, P=0.007; OR=11.407, 95%CI: 3.064~42.471, P < 0.001)、胎盘植入(OR=4.029, 95%CI: 1.199~13.534, P=0.024)是瘢痕子宫再次剖宫产分娩发生PPH的独立危险因素。列线图预测剖宫产分娩PPH的AUC为0.89, 校准曲线贴合良好,临床决策曲线分析显示预测模型具有临床实用性。
    结论  列线图模型可有效评估瘢痕子宫再次经剖宫产分娩发生PPH的风险,临床使用效能较好。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To analyze the risk factors of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) after re-cesarean section in delivery with scar uterus, and to establish a nomogram prediction model for the risk of PPH in delivery puerperas with scar uterine undergoing re-cesarean section.
    Methods  A total of 210 cases of pregnant women with uterine scar were selected as research objects, and divided into PPH group (70 cases) and non-PPH group (140 cases) according to whether postpartum bleeding occurred or not. Clinical data of patients were retrospectively analyzed, independent risk factors were screened, prediction models were constructed and presented in nomogram. The model was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic (ROC), curve calibration curve and decision curve analysis.
    Results  Number of previous abortion (1 time and ≥2 times) (OR=2.838, 95%CI, 1.014 to 8.051, P=0.047; OR=6.843, 95%CI, 2.523 to 18.560, P < 0.001), magnesium sulfate protects fetal history (OR=14.061, 95%CI, 1.173 to 14.061, P=0.027), antepartum haemorrhage (OR=6.977, 95%CI, 1.220 to 39.902, P=0.029), non-term birth (OR=7.737, 95%CI, 2.862 to 20.915, P=0.017), the placenta position (OR=3.370, 95%CI, 1.371 to 8.283, P=0.008), placenta previa (incomplete and complete) (OR=9.210, 95%CI, 1.817 to 46.678, P=0.007; OR=11.407, 95%CI, 3.064 to 42.471, P < 0.001) and placenta implantation (OR=4.029, 95%CI, 1.199 to 13.534, P=0.024) were independent risk factors for PPH in delivery puerperas with uterine scar undergoing re-cesarean section. The AUC of PPH in puerperas with cesarean section predicted by the nomogram was 0.89, the calibration curve fitted well, and the analysis of clinical decision curve showed that the prediction model had clinical practicability.
    Conclusion  The nomogram model can effectively evaluate the risk of PPH in delivery puerperas with uterine scar undergoing re-cesarean section, and has good clinical efficacy.

     

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