胃癌术后炎性并发症的危险因素分析及列线图预测模型构建

Risk factor and nomogram prediction model construction for postoperative inflammatory complications in gastric cancer patients

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨胃癌根治性切除术后炎性并发症的危险因素, 并构建风险预测列线图模型。
    方法 回顾性分析402例接受胃癌根治性切除术治疗的原发性胃癌患者的临床资料,患者术前均接受营养风险筛查2002(NRS2002)评分、患者主观整体评估(PG-SGA)分级、第3腰椎骨骼肌质量指数(L3-SMI)评估及血清学指标检测。采用单因素分析筛选胃癌术后炎性并发症的影响因素,并采用多因素Logistic回归分析确定胃癌术后炎性并发症的独立危险因素。基于多因素Logistic回归分析结果构建预测胃癌根治性切除术后炎性并发症的列线图模型,并通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线评价模型的预测效能。
    结果 单因素分析结果显示,年龄、TNM分期、体质量指数、术前血红蛋白、术前白蛋白、术前球蛋白、NRS2002评分、PG-SGA分级、L3-SMI是胃癌根治性切除术后患者发生炎性并发症的影响因素(P < 0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄≤60岁、术前血红蛋白≤130 g/L(男)或115 g/L(女)、TNM分期为Ⅳ期、NRS2002评分≥3分、L3-SMI≤52.4 cm2/m2(男)或38.5 cm2/m2(女)是胃癌患者术后发生炎性并发症的独立危险因素(P < 0.05)。基于年龄、术前血红蛋白、TNM分期、NRS2002评分构建列线图模型, ROC曲线显示列线图模型的曲线下面积为0.930, 敏感度和特异度分别为93.2%和89.2%, 校准曲线显示列线图预测的炎性并发症发生概率与实际结果具有良好的一致性。
    结论 年龄≤60岁、术前低血红蛋白、TNM分期为Ⅳ期、NRS2002评分≥3分、低L3-SMI是胃癌患者术后发生炎性并发症的独立危险因素, 基于年龄、术前血红蛋白、TNM分期、NRS2002评分构建的列线图模型能够精准预测胃癌术后炎性并发症。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To investigate the risk factors for inflammatory complications after radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer and construct a nomogram model for risk prediction.
    Methods The clinical data of 402 patients with primary gastric cancer who underwent radical gastrectomy were retrospectively analyzed. All patients underwent preoperative Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS2002) score, Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) grading, Lumbar 3 Skeletal Muscle Index (L3-SMI) assessment, and serological index testing. Univariate analysis was used to screen for influencing factors of postoperative inflammatory complications of gastric cancer, and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine independent risk factors. A nomogram model for predicting postoperative inflammatory complications after radical gastrectomy was constructed based on the results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis, and the predictive performance of the model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve.
    Results Univariate analysis revealed that age, TNM stage, body mass index, preoperative hemoglobin, preoperative albumin, preoperative globulin, NRS2002 score, PG-SGA grade, and L3-SMI were influencing factors of postoperative inflammatory complications in patients undergoing radical gastrectomy (P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age ≤60 years, preoperative hemoglobin ≤130 g/L(male) or ≤115 g/L(female), TNM staging of Ⅳ stage, NRS2002 score≥3, and L3-SMI ≤52.4 cm2/m2(male) or ≤38.5 cm2/m2(female) were independent risk factors for postoperative inflammatory complications in gastric cancer patients (P < 0.05). A nomogram model was constructed based on age, preoperative hemoglobin, TNM stage, and NRS2002 score. The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve of the nomogram model was 0.930, with sensitivity and specificity of 93.2% and 89.2%, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrated good consistency between the predicted probability of inflammatory complications and the actual outcomes.
    Conclusion Age≤60 years, low preoperative hemoglobin, TNM staging of Ⅳ stage, NRS2002 score ≥3, and low L3-SMI are independent risk factors for postoperative inflammatory complications in gastric cancer patients. The nomogram model constructed based on age, preoperative hemoglobin, TNM stage, and NRS2002 score can accurately predict postoperative inflammatory complications after gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

     

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