Construction of a mortality competition risk model for patients with early-onset colorectal cancer

Objective To analyze the risk factors of cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in patients with early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC), and to establish and verify the mortality risk prediction model.

Methods A total of 14 554 patients pathologically diagnosed with EOCRC from 2010 to 2019 were included in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly divided into a training set with 10 188 patients and a validation set with 4 366 patients. Fine-Gray competitive risk model was used for univariate and multivariate analysis, and influencing factors of CSM rate in patients with EOCRC were screened. The prognostic model was established, the C index and calibration curve were used for internal verification, and the column graph was drawn.

Results Pathological type, N stage, M stage, primary lesion surgery, regional lymph node surgery, distant metastasis surgery and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) were independent factors influencing the CSM rate of EOCRC patients (P < 0.05). The C-index of the line graph model was close to 0.8, and the calibration curves fitted the reference line.

Conclusion The death competition risk model of EOCRC patients established in this study has good predictive value and can be used in clinical practice.