Establishment and validation of a Nomogram model for predicting acute radiation dermatitis caused by intensity modulated radiotherapy for esophageal cancer

WANG Yanhu; XIAO Wei; FANG Shencun; WANG Huichi; HONG Mei; CHAI Lin; CHANG Yuan; ZHENG Wei; ZHU Nuo

doi:10.7619/jcmp.20222370

Journal of Clinical Medicine in Practice > 2023 > 27(1): 26-30, 59. > DOI: 10.7619/jcmp.20222370

WANG Yanhu, XIAO Wei, FANG Shencun, WANG Huichi, HONG Mei, CHAI Lin, CHANG Yuan, ZHENG Wei, ZHU Nuo. Establishment and validation of a Nomogram model for predicting acute radiation dermatitis caused by intensity modulated radiotherapy for esophageal cancer[J]. Journal of Clinical Medicine in Practice, 2023, 27(1): 26-30, 59. DOI: 10.7619/jcmp.20222370

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Establishment and validation of a Nomogram model for predicting acute radiation dermatitis caused by intensity modulated radiotherapy for esophageal cancer

Nanjing Chest Hospital in Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210029

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Received Date: August 01, 2022
Available Online: February 01, 2023

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Objective
To establish a Nomogram model for predicting acute radiation dermatitis (ARD) caused by intensity modulated radiotherapy for esophageal cancer and verify its predictive ability.
Methods
A total of 179 thoracic esophageal cancer patients with intensity modulated radiation therapy were selected as the research objects, and they were divided into ≥ grade 3 ARD group and control group according to the incidence of ARD grade 3 or above. The predictors of ≥ grade 3 ARD caused by intensity modulated radiation therapy for esophageal cancer were screened by univariate, LASSO regression and multivariate Logistic regression analyses, and the Nomogram model was established.
Results
Diabetes, albumin level < 30 g/L, Karnofsky score < 80, radiation dose ≥ 65 Gy and concurrent chemotherapy were the independent risk factors of ≥ grade 3 ARD caused by intensity modulated radiation therapy for esophageal cancer (P < 0.05). The model verification results showed that the consistency index (C-index) was 0.771, and the calibration curve was close to the ideal curve; the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.778 (95%CI, 0.738 to 0.818), and the net benefit of the model was in the prediction range of 12% to 64%, indicating that the Nomogram model had good prediction ability.
Conclusion
The risk factors of ≥ grade 3 ARD caused by intensity modulated radiation therapy for esophageal cancer include diabetes, albumin level < 30 g/L, Karnofsky score < 80, radiotherapy dose ≥ 65 Gy and concurrent chemotherapy, and the Nomogram model based on risk factors has good predictive ability.
- esophageal cancer,
- intensity modulated radiation therapy,
- acute radiation dermatitis,
- risk factors,
- Nomogram

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References (22)

References

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Establishment and validation of a Nomogram model for predicting acute radiation dermatitis caused by intensity modulated radiotherapy for esophageal cancer