Establishment of a Nomogram prediction model for chronic constipation patients based on body position exercise training

Objective To construct a Nomogram prediction model based on body position exercise training for patients with chronic constipation.

Methods A total of 327 patients with chronic constipation from March 2021 to March 2023 were divided into qualified group (n=279) and unqualified group (n=48) according to their performance in body position exercises. General clinical materials of the patients were collected, and univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for unqualified body position exercises in patients with chronic constipation; the R software was used to construct a Nomogram model for predicting unqualified body position exercises in patients with chronic constipation, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were applied to verify the discrimination and consistency of the Nomogram model.

Results There were no significant differences in gender, education level, history of smoking, history of alcohol abuse, history of hypertension, history of abdominal surgery, history of colonoscopy, and correct medication administration ratio between the two groups (P>0.05); the unqualified group had higher age, longer duration of chronic constipation, and a higher proportion of diabetes history compared to the qualified group (P < 0.05); age, duration of chronic constipation, and diabetes history were independent risk factors for unqualified body position exercises in patients with chronic constipation (P < 0.05). The constructed Nomogram prediction model demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under the curve was 0.923, 95%CI, 0.888 to 0.949, with sensitivity and specificity of 87.50% and 81.00% respectively) and consistency (H-L goodness-of-fit test χ²=2.246, P=0.973). The clinical value of this Nomogram model in predicting unqualified body position exercises for patients with chronic constipation was high when the high-risk threshold probability ranged from 0.06 to 0.80.

Conclusion Age, duration of chronic constipation, and diabetes history are independent risk factors for unqualified body position exercises in patients with chronic constipation, and the Nomogram model constructed based on these multi-factor results has high discrimination and consistency in predicting unqualified body position exercises for patients with chronic constipation.